I hope you are all having a great weekend. A blogpost about something different today. Let’s look at Martingale Betting System and its use in Roulette, the table game.
Let’s make one thing very clear, I DO NOT gamble unless it is for a social occasion. I have nothing against people gambling for having some good time (more for socialising purposes) but I have zero respect for people who can’t control themselves and lose a lot of money unnecessarily to the casinos.
Living in Monaco comes with its perks. After all, Monte Carlo is the place where it all began. The funny thing about Monaco is Monaco citizens (note not residents – means two different things) are not allowed to gamble. This is almost ironic, basically giving the message that Monaco will entertain you the max, take your money and then will send you home where your bank manager is waiting to have a word… (a bit like Vegas – perhaps a bit more classy way of taking your money). And that is exactly what happens in the Monte Carlo Casino.
I socialise and go to the casino quite frequently. My wife and I are members of number of societies in Monaco where after a great meal in Hotel de Paris, the night generally ends in the Casino. The only game I would ever play to socialise with the crowd in the casino is Roulette. There are number of reasons for this, which I will explain below.
Now let’s go back in time, all the way to 18th Century. We are now in rural France. You are looking at a house lit with oil lamps and a man is working hard on advanced probability theory. This is the Martingale Betting System. It is originated with the betting on heads or tails using a coin. In classic Martingale system you double up the next bet after each loss and as soon as you win you reduce your bet the initial amount after each win.
You will never leave the casino penniless with this system – the winnings will cover all your net losses of the previous bets (all IN THEORY!!!).
Let us use an example to understand how it works. Let’s say you are playing classic or European roulette (so we have RED, BLACK and only one GREEN colour on the roulette). This means, as a player, you can bet to the colour RED or BLACK. If you win you will get win double your bet. Let’s say you always bet to RED colour. To win you need RED colour (any other colours such as BLACK or GREEN means that you will loose the bet). By the way you can bet to RED or BLACK this doesn’t make any difference. The probability for both are exactly the same.
Let’s say, You bet 1 dollars to RED and lose the bet, the next time you now have to bet 2 dollars (this is how Martingale System works, you need to double your loos). If you happen to lose your 2 dollars, you must bet 4 dollars the next spin. If you lose again, do not give up! Bet the increased amount of 8 dollars! When you win (Let’s say at $8 bet – now you have won $16) you should reduce your next roulette bet to the starting amount of 1 dollars. As a result, you will always have a minimal gain. In our example it is 1 dollar minimal gain: $16 – ($1+$2+$4+$8)=$1. Well, using Martingale system, in theory, you can’t loose. Sooner or later you will get the colour of your choice and you will at least win the minimal bet amount.
Let’s have a look at your probability of losing under Martingale System, here is a chart:
If it sounds too good to be true, it generally is!
As the old sayings go, in the long run the casino will always win. Because they have an advantage, the GREEN (0) to their advantage. The catch is you’ll get red *less than* half of the time (as seen above), since there are black and green spaces on the wheel. You can keep doubling your bet and eventually you’ll win a whole $5, or eventually you won’t have enough money to double your previous bet and you’re screwed. Or you will hit the table maximum. Most online casino do not let you to bet more than $1000 on a roulette table. Some do but they will always have a maximum limit to stop you winning. This means that if I bet on RED and if I start with $1, I will only have 10 chances to get RED ($1, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64, $128, $256, $528, $1016). It sounds like 10 BLACKS and/or GREENS in a row looks like a small chance, it happens all the time. The more you play, the more likely you will get this in a row. Trust me, it WILL happen!
Once I first discovered Martingale Betting system years ago, I straight away wrote a software programme to automate Martingale and make a million! It worked successfully and bet exactly how I wanted but at the end of the day (was trying demo accounts only of course), I was always the one who was losing at the end of the day. It is simple mathematics.
In the short term, the system will very likely to work. So if you want to impress your friends or family, it is a great trick in the casino. Take your winnings and never play again that day. That’s what I do. One thing is for sure, trying Martingale in a demo account is so much fun. You want to test it? Follow the link and have some weekend fun (DON’T LOOSE ANY MONEY!):
http://casino.williamhill.com/ (choose European Roulette)
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Have a nice weekend.